Abstract

Abstract. We investigate projected 2000–2050 changes in concentrations of aerosols in China and the associated transboundary aerosol transport by using the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem driven by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) 3 at 4° × 5° resolution. Future changes in climate and emissions projected by the IPCC A1B scenario are imposed separately and together through sensitivity simulations. Accounting for sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon (BC), and organic carbon (OC) aerosols, concentrations of individual aerosol species change by −1.5 to +0.8 μg m−3, and PM2.5 levels are projected to change by about 10–20% in eastern China as a result of 2000–2050 change in climate alone. With future changes in anthropogenic emissions alone, concentrations of sulfate, BC, and OC are simulated to decrease because of assumed reductions in emissions, and those of nitrate are predicted to increase because of higher NOx emissions combined with decreases in sulfate. The net result is a predicted reduction of seasonal mean PM2.5 concentrations in eastern China by 1–8 μg m−3 (or 10–40%) over 2000–2050. It is noted that current emission inventories for BC and OC over China are judged to be inadequate at present. Transboundary fluxes of different aerosol species show different sensitivities to future changes in climate and emissions. The annual outflow of PM2.5 from eastern China to the western Pacific is estimated to change by −7.0%, −0.7%, and −9.0% over 2000–2050 owing to climate change alone, changes in emissions alone, and changes in both climate and emissions, respectively. The fluxes of nitrate and ammonium aerosols from Europe and Central Asia into western China increase over 2000–2050 in response to projected changes in emissions, leading to a 10.5% increase in annual inflow of PM2.5 to western China with future changes in both emissions and climate. Fluxes of BC and OC from South Asia to China in spring contribute a large fraction of the annual inflow of PM2.5. The annual inflow of PM2.5 from South Asia and Southeast Asia to China is estimated to change by −8%, +281%, and +227% over 2000–2050 owing to climate change alone, changes in emissions alone, and changes in both climate and emissions, respectively. While the 4° × 5° spatial resolution is a limitation of the present study, the direction of predicted changes in aerosol levels and transboundary fluxes still provides valuable insight into future air quality.

Highlights

  • Aerosols are important air pollutants that lead to negative health impacts, reductions in visibility, and changes in climate (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007)

  • Coupled climate–chemical transport modeling studies show that climate change alone can lead to increased surface ozone in anthropogenically impacted regions by 1–10 ppbv in summertime over the coming decades, based on the IPCC future scenarios (Jacob and Winner, 2009)

  • This increase is a result of slower transport, enhanced biogenic hydrocarbon emissions, and accelerated decomposition of peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) at higher temperatures (Hogrefe et al, 2004; Liao et al, 2006; Murazaki and Hess, 2006; Steiner et al, 2006; Racherla and Adams, 2008; Wu et al, 2008; Jacob and Winner, 2009; Andersson and Engardt, 2010; Chang et al, 2010; Lam et al, 2011; Katragkou et al, 2011; Langner et al, 2012; Reuten et al, 2012; Wang et al, 2013a)

Read more

Summary

Introduction

Aerosols are important air pollutants that lead to negative health impacts, reductions in visibility, and changes in climate (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007). Coupled climate–chemical transport modeling studies show that climate change alone can lead to increased surface ozone in anthropogenically impacted regions by 1–10 ppbv in summertime over the coming decades, based on the IPCC future scenarios (Jacob and Winner, 2009). By using satellite measurements of aerosol optical depth over the North Pacific together with GEOS-Chem simulation, Heald et al (2006) showed that transport from Asia led to a seasonal mean increase of surface-layer sulfate concentration of 0.16 μg m−3 (with 50 % uncertainty) in the northwestern United States in spring of 2001.

Methods
Emissions
Effect of changes in both climate and anthropogenic emissions
Simulated 2000–2050 changes in transboundary transport of aerosols
Estimated present-day outflow
Effect of changes in anthropogenic emissions alone
Present-day inflow
Effect of changes in climate alone
Present-day transport
Findings
Full Text
Published version (Free)

Talk to us

Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have

Schedule a call