Hydrological process simulation in Manas River Basin using CMADS

Abstract

Abstract The inability to conduct hydrological simulations in areas that lack historical meteorological data is an important factor limiting the development of watershed models, understanding of watershed water resources, and ultimate development of effective sustainability policies. This study focuses on the Manas River Basin (MRB), which is a high-altitude area with no meteorological stations and is located on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, northern China. The hydrological processes were simulated using the China Meteorological Assimilation Driving Datasets for the SWAT model (CMADS) using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Simulated runoff was corrected using calibration/uncertainty and sensitivity program for the SWAT. Through parameter sensitivity analysis, parameter calibration, and verification, the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), adjusted R-square ( R adj 2 {R}_{\text{adj}}^{2} ), and percentage bias ( PBIAS \text{PBIAS} ) were selected for evaluation. The results were compared with statistics obtained from Kenswat Hydrological Station, where the monthly runoff simulation efficiency was NSE = 0.64 \text{NSE}\hspace{.25em}=0.64 , R adj 2 = 0.69 {R}_{\text{adj}}^{2}\hspace{.25em}=0.69 , and PBIAS = – 0.9 \text{PBIAS}\hspace{.25em}=\mbox{--}0.9 , and the daily runoff simulation efficiency was NSE = 0.75 \text{NSE}\hspace{.25em}=0.75 , R adj 2 {R}_{\text{adj}}^{2} = 0.75, PBIAS \text{PBIAS} = −1.5. These results indicate that by employing CMADS data, hydrological processes within the MRB can be adequately simulated. This finding is significant, as CMADS provide continuous temporal, detailed, and high-spatial-resolution meteorological data that can be used to build a hydrological model with adequate accuracy in areas that lack historical meteorological data.