Application of SWAT Model with CMADS Data to Estimate Hydrological Elements and Parameter Uncertainty Based on SUFI-2 Algorithm in the Lijiang River Basin, China

Zhiqiang Zeng,Jing Zhang,Binbin Guo,Yang Cao,Liu Yang,Jiashen Qu,Mingxiang Yang,Xiaohui Lei

doi:10.3390/w10060742

Abstract

The China Meteorological Assimilation Driving Datasets for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model (CMADS) have been widely applied in recent years because of their accuracy. An evaluation of the accuracy and efficiency of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and CMADS for simulating hydrological processes in the fan-shaped Lijiang River Basin, China, was carried out. The Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2) algorithm was used for parameter sensitivity and uncertainty analysis at the daily scale. The pair-wise correlation between parameters and the uncertainties associated with equifinality in model parameter estimation were investigated. The results showed that the SWAT model performed well in predicting daily streamflow for the calibration period (2009–2010). The correlation coefficient (R2) was 0.92, and the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE) was 0.89. For the validation period (2011–2018), R2 = 0.89, NSE = 0.88, and reasonable values for the P-factor, R-factor, and percent bias (PBIAS) were obtained. In addition, the spatial and temporal variation of evapotranspiration (ET), surface runoff, and groundwater discharge were analyzed. The results clearly showed that spatial variation in surface runoff and groundwater discharge are strongly related to precipitation, while ET is largely controlled by land use types. The contributions to the water budget by surface runoff, groundwater discharge, and lateral flow were very different in flood years and dry years.

Highlights

The water cycle is one of the most important of the earth’s cycles, and it plays a crucial role in biosphere changes
It is necessary to study the contribution to the water budget by different hydrological elements in a basin for the purpose of land use management, water resources management, and hydrological process analysis
Because the contribution to the water budget by different hydrological elements is hard to measure in the field, it is more practical to estimate the water cycle components of a watershed using a hydrological model [5]

Summary

Introduction

The water cycle is one of the most important of the earth’s cycles, and it plays a crucial role in biosphere changes. Water balance elements in a basin are affected by natural and human factors, such as the types of land use, soil properties [1], geological conditions, glacier [2] and human economic activity [3,4]. It is necessary to study the contribution to the water budget by different hydrological elements in a basin for the purpose of land use management, water resources management, and hydrological process analysis. Because the contribution to the water budget by different hydrological elements is hard to measure in the field, it is more practical to estimate the water cycle components of a watershed using a hydrological model [5]. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is an important tool in the development of water management strategies [6]. Sophocleous et al [8] simulated combined surface-water, ground-water, and stream-aquifer interactions using a comprehensive

Methods

Results

Conclusion