Investigate the Applicability of CMADS and CFSR Reanalysis in Northeast China

Limin Zhang,Siyu Cai,Hao Wang,Xianyong Meng,Mingxiang Yang

doi:10.3390/w12040996

Abstract

Reanalysis datasets can provide alternative and complementary meteorological data sources for hydrological studies or other scientific studies in regions with few gauge stations. This study evaluated the accuracy of two reanalysis datasets, the China Meteorological Assimilation Driving Datasets for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model (CMADS) and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), against gauge observations (OBS) by using interpolation software and statistical indicators in Northeast China (NEC), as well as their annual average spatial and monthly average distributions. The reliability and applicability of the two reanalysis datasets were assessed as inputs in a hydrological model (SWAT) for runoff simulation in the Hunhe River Basin. Statistical results reveal that CMADS performed better than CFSR for precipitation and temperature in NEC with the indicators closer to optimal values (the ratio of standard deviations of precipitation and maximum/minimum temperature from CMADS were 0.92, 1.01, and 0.995, respectively, while that from CFSR were 0.79, 1.07, and 0.897, respectively). Hydrological modelling results showed that CMADS + SWAT and OBS + SWAT performed far better than CFSR + SWAT on runoff simulations. The Nash‒Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of CMADS + SWAT and OBS + SWAT ranged from 0.54 to 0.95, while that of CFSR + SWAT ranged from −0.07 to 0.85, exhibiting poor performance. The CMADS reanalysis dataset is more accurate than CFSR in NEC and is a suitable input for hydrological simulations.

Highlights

Precipitation and temperature play important roles in the climatic system and have been widely used to evaluate terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate change [1,2]
Four evaluation indicators (i.e., R, relative error (RE), root mean square error (RMSE), and STD ratio ) were used for the comparison of CMADS, and 56% of the stations fell below their respective average value for both CMADS and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR)
Compared with CFSR, CMADS had a higher consistency with OBS in precipitation and temperature, and the runoff simulation results of CMADS and OBS were much better than that of CFSR

Summary

Introduction

Precipitation and temperature play important roles in the climatic system and have been widely used to evaluate terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate change [1,2]. Northeast China (NEC, 38◦ –54◦ N, 115◦ –136◦ E), located in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, is the highest latitude area and an important granary of China. It is primarily characterized by a temperate monsoon climate and is a typically vulnerable climate area [3]. Due to the complex terrain and adverse weather and environmental conditions in NEC, weather stations have an uneven spatial distribution, and the density of the stations is 0.2 per 1000 km. Low density and uneven spatial distribution of gauge stations may lead to poor performances in hydrological models, in the regions with complex terrain

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Conclusion