Hydrogen energy deployment in decarbonizing transportation sector using multi-supply-demand integrated scenario analysis with nonlinear programming — A Shanxi case study

Abstract

Peaking CO2 emissions and reaching carbon neutrality create a major role for hydrogen in the transportation field where decarbonization is difficult. Shanxi, as a microcosm of China in the systematic transformation of energy end-use consumption, is selected to investigate the hydrogen energy development forecast for decarbonization in the transportation sector. Multi-supply-demand integrated scenario analysis with nonlinear programming (NLP) model is established to analyze hydrogen energy deployment in varied periods and regions under minimum environmental, energy and economic objectives, to obtain CO2 emission reduction potential. Results reveal that green hydrogen contributes most to low-carbon hydrogen development strategies. In high-hydrogen demand scenarios, carbon emission reduction potential is significantly higher under environmental objectives, estimated at 297.68 × 104–848.12 × 104 tons (2025–2035). The work provides a strategy to forecast hydrogen energy deployment for transportation decarbonization, being of vital significant guide for planning of hydrogen energy transportation in other regions.