Abstract
Accurate and trustworthy wave height forecast is essential for the efficient exploitation of wave energy. However, the non-linearity and non-stationarity of waves present a challenge task when using the conventional statistical models in the ocean wave forecasting. Aiming at these problems, this paper proposes a short-term wave height prediction method based on the Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD), Deep Extreme Learning Machine (DELM) and Sparrow Search Algorithm (SSA). Specifically, the original wave height data is initially decomposed into numerous sub-series from high to low frequency by VMD technique. Subsequently, the SSA method is employed to optimize the DELM parameters to enhance the functionality of the basic DELM model. Three wave height datasets located in the North Pacific Ocean are employed as cases in this paper. In comparison with other benchmark models, the RMSE parameters of VMD-SSA-DELM model are reduced by 35.59%–73.33% even at 10-h lead time by analyzing different forecast durations, which demonstrate the proposed model's superiority in short-term wave height prediction.
Published Version
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