How does the interplay between resource availability, intersectoral competition and reliability affect a low-carbon power generation mix in Brazil for 2050?

Tjerk Lap,René Benders,Floor Van Der Hilst,André Faaij

doi:10.1016/j.energy.2020.116948

Tjerk Lap, René Benders + Show 2 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.116948

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Abstract

Increasing penetration of solar and wind energy can reduce the reliability of power generation systems. This can be mitigated by e.g.; low-carbon dispatchable hydropower and baseload biomass power plants. However, long-term supply potential for those sources is often uncertain, and biomass can also be used for biofuel production. The purpose of this study is to assess the interplay between uncertain supply potential of biomass and hydropower, intersectoral competition and reliability on a low carbon power system for 2050, with Brazil as case study, using a soft-link between an energy model and a power system model. Hydropower acts as a balancing agent for solar and wind energy, even under lower hydropower supply potential. When less biomass is available, low carbon transportation is met more with electric cars instead of ethanol cars, leading to an increase in electric load for charging their batteries. The charging strategy determines whether peak load increases substantially; after commuting, or lowers; in off-peak hours. This shows the importance of using a soft-link between the high temporal resolution power system model to assess the reliability, and a least cost-optimization model to assess the interplay between resource availability and intersectoral competition of low-carbon power systems.

Highlights

To limit global warming to less than 2 C, many countries have pledged to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in accordance with the Paris Agreement [1]
The largest share of the new electricity generation capacity with a low carbon intensity is expected to come from solar and wind energy [2]. These sources are all variable renewable energy (VRE) sources that can cause problems related to the reliability of the power grid because of intermittency
Biomass [3] is seen as lowcarbon alternatives that can provide dispatchable power generation that can balance power systems with high shares of VRE

Summary

Introduction

To limit global warming to less than 2 C, many countries have pledged to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in accordance with the Paris Agreement [1]. A key challenge is to provide electricity with a low carbon intensity, in a reliable and cost-effective way. The largest share of the new electricity generation capacity with a low carbon intensity is expected to come from solar and wind energy [2]. These sources are all variable renewable energy (VRE) sources that can cause problems related to the reliability of the power grid because of intermittency. Biomass [3] is seen as lowcarbon alternatives that can provide dispatchable power generation that can balance power systems with high shares of VRE. There are concerns related to the supply potential for hydropower and biomass

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