Reliability evaluation of the solar power system based on the Markov chain method

Abstract

Summary Energy shortages and environmental problems associated with nonrenewable energy generation techniques have become increasingly prominent worldwide. Solar photovoltaic power generation is able to supply clean, environmentally friendly, and inexhaustible energy. Together with issues related to the expansion of scale, strong stochastic volatility and unpredictability have posed huge challenges to the stability and reliability of this power generation system. The present study proposed a reliable method to evaluate the stationary distribution probability based on the Markov chain method. First, the solar generation system was modeled based on the solar battery. Second, the stochastic property of the solar energy output power was derived and the simulation experiment adopted to verify the feasibility of results. Third, the energy storage device discharge process was modeled based on the Markov chain method and the evaluation method for the reliability of the solar power generation system obtained. Finally, validity of the method was simulated and verified.