How do conservation policies, climate and socioeconomic changes impact Hyrcanian forests of northern Iran?

Abstract

Sustainable forest management (SFM) practices are required to conserve forest ecosystem services. International agreements and national management plans have been developed to avoid deforestation and increase forest sustainability. Due to the high rate of deforestation and its increasing trend in the past, the most important conservation policy (the Forest Rest Plan) in Hyrcanian forests (HFs) has been in place since 2016 to conserve the HFs, which are a UNESCO World Heritage site. The aim of the Forest Rest Plan (FRP) is to increase the crown cover, resilience, and production of HFs. Here, we apply a robust methodology based on Landsat-8-derived spectral-temporal features, spatial analysis, stepwise multilevel logistic regression, and scientific forest management knowledge to determine how the FRP, climate change, anthropogenic activities, and the environmental conditions influence deforestation and forest recovery. We identified and evaluated 18 explanatory variables, including socioeconomic, climatic, and physiographic factors, to determine the key drivers of forest cover change. Our findings revealed complex interactions between distinct land features that occur at multiple spatial and temporal scales in HFs as connected human–natural systems. Further, we found a decreasing trend in deforestation and a growing trend in forest recovery resulting from implementation of the FRP. Additionally, our stepwise multilevel logistic regression identified impacts of climate change, human pressure, and some physiographic factors, such as forest density, on deforestation and forest recovery. We conclude that while some positive impacts can already be identified, additional adaptive, preventative, and restorative strategies must be developed to reach all FRP objectives.