Abstract
The aim of this study was to estimate the development of fertility and the impact of HIV on this development in North-Central Namibia from 1980 to 2004. The main sources of data consisted of parish registers for eight Evangelical Lutheran congregations, the 1992 and 2000 Namibia Demographic and Health Surveys and the 1991 and 2001 population censuses. Developments in fertility were studied using the total fertility rate (TFR), age-speci? c fertility rates (ASFR), and standardized fertility distributions. The results show that fertility declined from 5.0 in 1980-89 to 4.1 in 1990-99 and to 3.5 in 2000-04. Among women in the 25-29 age group and older, fertility declined, while fertility among adolescents increased. Both age at ? rst marriage and premarital fertility increased during the study period. During the 1990s, HIV infection explained 25-29% of the decline in total fertility. If mortality continues to increase as a result of the HIV epidemic while fertility continues to decline, both because of HIV infection and for other societal reasons, the implications for future population growth rates and the countrys demographic structure are pronounced.
Highlights
Fertility transition and the HIV epidemic are the two major demographic issues in sub-Saharan Africa Southern Africa is a focal point for the two major current demographic issues currently affecting sub-Saharan Africa, fertility transition and the HIV pandemic
The typical age pattern of fertility for this region, in which peak levels of fertility are found during the central childbearing years (25–39 years), was identified once again in the present study, as it has been in several other studies based on population censuses, Namibia Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) data, and parish register data (e.g. Raitis 1995; Shemeikka 2006)
Fertility in North-Central Namibia has been subject to considerable variation from the 1920s onwards, with the highest levels being found in the 1930s (Notkola and Siiskonen 2000)
Summary
Fertility transition and the HIV epidemic are the two major demographic issues in sub-Saharan Africa Southern Africa is a focal point for the two major current demographic issues currently affecting sub-Saharan Africa, fertility transition and the HIV pandemic. These two phenomena are independent, they interact. When sub-Saharan Africa ‘joined’ the global decline in fertility, it was parts of southern Africa, namely South Africa, Botswana and Zimbabwe, that were the forerunners, together with Kenya from eastern Africa (e.g., Letamo and Letamo 2002; Moultrie and Timæus 2003; Muhwava 2002; White, Hall and Wolf 2007). South Africa entered fertility transition during the 1960s whereas Botswana ‘joined’ in the late 1970s or early 1980s. Among the other countries of southern Africa, sustained fertility decline is ongoing in Lesotho and Swaziland, while fertility is declining at a slower pace in Mozambique, Zambia and Malawi (Potts and Marks 2001)
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