Abstract
Lake ice phenology (timing of ice breakup and freeze up) is a sensitive indicator of climate. We acquired time series of lake ice breakup and freeze up, local weather conditions, and large-scale climate oscillations from 1981–2015 for seven lakes in northern Wisconsin, USA, and two lakes in Ontario, Canada. Multiple linear regression models were developed to understand the drivers of lake ice phenology. We used projected air temperature and precipitation from 126 climate change scenarios to forecast the day of year of ice breakup and freeze up in 2050 and 2070. Lake ice melted 5 days earlier and froze 8 days later over the past 35 years. Warmer spring and winter air temperatures contributed to earlier ice breakup; whereas warmer November temperatures delayed lake freeze. Lake ice breakup is projected to be 13 days earlier on average by 2070, but could vary by 3 days later to 43 days earlier depending upon the degree of climatic warming by late century. Similarly, the timing of lake freeze up is projected to be delayed by 11 days on average by 2070, but could be 1 to 28 days later. Shortened seasonality of ice cover by 24 days could increase risk of algal blooms, reduce habitat for coldwater fisheries, and jeopardize survival of northern communities reliant on ice roads.
Highlights
Temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere have undergone faster warming trends in the past three to four decades than over the last 1300 years [1]
The overall goal of our study is to expand our understanding of the impacts of future climatic changes on lake ice phenology for north temperate lakes in the Laurentian Great Lakes region of
In northern Wisconsin, lake ice breakup became earlier at a rate of 1.5 days per decade between 1981/2 and 2014/5
Summary
Temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere have undergone faster warming trends in the past three to four decades than over the last 1300 years [1]. Over a 150-year period, ice has melted earlier, frozen later, and ice duration has become shorter in lakes and rivers across the Northern Hemisphere [2,4]. Jensen et al [5] found that on average, lake ice melted 6.3 days earlier Shorter periods of lake ice cover can lead to earlier stratification and warmer summer surface water temperatures [6,7], earlier spring. Water 2018, 10, 70 phytoplankton blooms [8], and alterations in fish feeding behaviour such that in warmer years lake trout eat smaller prey from deeper, offshore regions [9]. Ice phenology is important to terrestrial mammals; such as the Isle Royale wolves that require lake ice for gene flow into their population [10]
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