A Novel Monthly Runoff Prediction Model Based on KVMD and KTCN-LSTM-SA

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Due to the uncertainty of meteorological factors and the influence of human activities, the monthly runoff series often exhibit the characteristics of non-stationarity. The appropriate prediction model and the hyperparameters of the model are often difficult to determine, and this affects the model prediction performance. For obtaining the accurate runoff prediction results, a novel prediction model (KVMD-KTCN-LSTM-SA) is proposed. This hybrid model uses Kepler optimization algorithm (KOA)-optimized Variable Mode Decomposition (KVMD), KOA-optimized temporal convolutional network–long short-term memory (TCN-LSTM), and the self-attention (SA) mechanism. KVMD effectively reduces the difficulty of predicting the monthly runoff series, KOA helps to find the optimal hyperparameters of the model, TCN is combined with LSTM, and the SA mechanism effectively increases the performance of the model. Monthly runoff from three hydrological stations in the Hetian River basin and one hydrological station in the Huaihe River basin are predicted with the proposed model, and six models are selected for comparison. The KVMD-KTCN-LSTM-SA model effectively reduces runoff fluctuation and combines the advantages of multiple models and achieves satisfactory runoff prediction results. During the testing period, the proposed model achieves NSE of 0.978 and R2 of 0.982 at Wuluwati station, NSE of 0.975 and R2 of 0.986 at Tongguziluoke station, and NSE of 0.978 and R2 of 0.982 at Jiangjiaji station. The proposed hybrid model provides a new approach for monthly runoff prediction, which is capable of better managing and predicting mid-long-term runoff.