Hierarchical environmental risk mapping of material degradation in historic masonry buildings: An integrated approach considering climate change and structural damage

Abstract

Abstract Resilience of new and existing buildings to climate change is a key research issue. Climate change-related phenomena can considerably affect buildings mechanical and thermal-energy response by contributing to materials degradation and structural safety. Such an impact is even further exacerbated in historical constructions, more vulnerable to such events due to their ancient structure if compared to recent designs. The purpose of this paper is to propose an innovative, integrated, multidisciplinary methodology for assessing construction materials’ degradation in historic masonry buildings and its potential future evolution, providing a risk mapping accounting for interactions between climate change effects and structural damage. Such a replicable approach consists in (i) preliminary site inspections, (ii) damage and degradation surveys, (iii) development and calibration of numerical models predicting structural-thermal response and (iv) prediction of materials degradation accounting for future climate conditions and potential worsening of structural damage. The final output of the procedure is a hierarchical mapping of regions with different degradation severities, by identifying those where a specific type of degradation or damage insists but are likely stable and those where they are expected to get worse due to changes in future climate conditions or to a negative interaction between degradation and damage. The presented approach is applied to an iconic Italian monumental building, the Consoli Palace in Gubbio, where future climate scenarios up to 2080 are simulated according to the IPCC climate change predictions. Results highlight that thermal-energy and structural aspects need to be jointly considered in the preservation of surface materials of historic buildings exposed to climate change severity.