Heavy Rainfall Simulation over Sinai Peninsula Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

Gamal El Afandi,Fathy El Hussieny,Mostafa Morsy

doi:10.1155/2013/241050

Gamal El Afandi, Fathy El Hussieny + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1155/2013/241050

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Abstract

Heavy rainfall is one of major severe weather over Sinai Peninsula and causes many flash floods over the region. The good forecasting of rainfall is very much necessary for providing early warning before the flash flood events to avoid or minimize disasters. In the present study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, heavy rainfall events that occurred over Sinai Peninsula and caused flash flood have been investigated. The flash flood that occurred on January 18, 2010, over different parts of Sinai Peninsula has been predicted and analyzed using the Advanced Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW) Model. The predicted rainfall in four dimensions (space and time) has been calibrated with the measurements recorded at rain gauge stations. The results show that the WRF model was able to capture the heavy rainfall events over different regions of Sinai. It is also observed that WRF model was able to predict rainfall in a significant consistency with real measurements. In this study, several synoptic characteristics of the depressions that developed during the course of study have been investigated. Also, several dynamic characteristics during the evolution of the depressions were studied: relative vorticity, thermal advection, and geopotential height.

Highlights

Heavy rainfall is one of the major severe weather in Egypt in arid and semiarid regions especially if it is steep and mountainous regions such as Sinai Peninsula and the Eastern desert of Egypt
Egypt is subjected to thunderstorms and heavy rains started at the north coast, the Red Sea, and the Sinai Peninsula during 18 January, 2010
The development of intensive weather events that invade Egypt during January 18, 2010, were characterized by “exceptional and extremely heavy rainfall,” which affected a wide part of Egypt, including Sinai Peninsula and fatal to some Bedouin tribes located in its path

Summary

Introduction

Short duration of heavy rainfall over a relatively small drainage area can lead to devastating flash flood, causing a number of fatalities and tremendous damages It can destabilize soils along mountain slopes, resulting in landslides and mudslides that cause severe damage to nearby villages. Sinai Peninsula contains many complex terrains; so rainfall forecasting for complex terrains is challenging and requires numerical simulations at very high resolution In arid areas such as Sinai in Egypt, rainfall is mainly caused by squall line and convective cloud mechanisms and by low-intensity frontal rain, causing storm floods [3]. WRF allows forecasting weather in complex terrains such as the one in Sinai and in the same time is considering orographic features It is suitable for a broad spectrum of applications across scales ranging from meters to thousands of kilometres. (b) the investigation of the capability of WRF to simulate successfully the rainfall amount during a flood event?

Study Area

Data and Methodology

Results and Discussions

Conclusions