Developing an Early Warning System for Flash Flood in Egypt: Case Study Sinai Peninsula

Abstract

Heavy rainfall is one of the major severe weather conditions over the Sinai Peninsula, and causes many flash floods over the region. Good rainfall forecasting is very much necessary for providing an early warning to avoid or minimize flash flood disasters. In the present study, heavy rainfall events that occurred over the Sinai Peninsula, on 24 October 2008 caused a flash flood, and was investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. This flash flood has predicted and analyzed over different parts of the Sinai Peninsula. The predicted rainfall in four dimensions (space and time) has been compared with the recorded measurements from rain gauges. “The results show that, the WRF model was able to capture the heavy rainfall events over different regions of Sinai.” The results reveal the capability of the WRF model in capturing extreme rainfall along different parts of the Sinai Peninsula. It observed that the WRF model was able to predict rainfall in a significant consistency with real measurements. At the same time, WRF has succeeded to represent small or mesoscale hazards such as severe thunderstorms, squall lines and heavy rainfall that caused a flash flood. Therefore, WRF is a reliable short-term forecasting tool for severe and heavy rainfall events over the Sinai Peninsula. One may conclude that the WRF model is an important and good tool in developing early warning systems of flash flood over the Sinai Peninsula. These systems will help and support the related authorities and decision-makers, to avoid many disasters accompanied by the flash flood. In addition, this research could apply and spread over the whole of Egypt as it gives warnings several days in advance.