Greenhouse gas emissions attributed to empty kilometers in automated vehicles

Abstract

Autonomous vehicles are expected to significantly disrupt the mode choice behavior of travelers. This study uses household travel data collected in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) to explore the potential impact of private autonomous vehicles (PAV) on household vehicle kilometers travelled (VKT) and greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). Two distinct scenarios are formulated to quantify the implications of PAVs on potential changes in household vehicle ownership and public transit ridership. We observe a feasible reduction in the total number of vehicles owned by a household with ownership of a PAV but at the expense of an average additional 57% daily VKT. In addition, we observe that PAVs have the potential to replace household transit trips while on average more than doubling daily VKT and GHG emissions. These findings can help guide policies that penalize empty miles and encourage ride sharing.