Great powers, cycles of relative capability and crises in world politics

Abstract

Connections to cycles of relative capability suggest that conflict among the great powers may exhibit certain regularities. Evolutionary changes in national capabilities and role, if manifested in cycles, may have implications for crises in world politics. The objective of this study is to use data on crises in foreign policy to test propositions derived from the theory of power cycles. There are five stages to this investigation. The first presents the theory and revises it through introduction of insights from prospect theory. The second phase derives implications for foreign policy crises from power cycle theory in its elaborated form. Third, measurements are developed for various aspects of crises and critical points in relative capabilities among the great powers. The fourth stage is analysis of data on the experiences of the great powers in foreign policy crises from 1918 to 1985. The fifth and final task is to assess implications of the findings and suggest directions for future research.