War and Power Dynamics: Economic Underpinnings

Abstract

Power cycle theory is a two-part theory of the dynamics of relative capability and the occurrence of major war. The relative capability of a state follows a particular non-linear pattern of evolution that is generalizable across the principal members of the state system. This capability also defines the state's systemic role. At four critical points on this curve, where change in the state's power position and international political role involve abrupt inversions in the dynamics, the probability of foreign policy misperception and over-reaction is increased and the state is more likely than at other times to trigger major war. Economic considerations underlie relative capability and affect the amplitude and periodicity of the power cycle. Differing central economic strategies that historically have contributed to the evolution of a state's power cycle are examined. Economic considerations also influence conflict probabilities directly within the critical interval. A discussion of further research involving the power cycle theory of war causation follows the examination of these economic underpinnings of the theory.