Theory II: Unified Model of Crisis (UMC) & ICB FrameWork

Abstract

presents a Unified Model of Crisis, originally developed in Brecher, Crises in World Politics: Theory and Reality (1993, Chap. 6). All four phases of an international crisis and all four periods of the foreign policy crisis for state crisis actors are delineated: the onset phase of an international crisis and the integrally related pre-crisis period for the state crisis actors; the escalation phase of an international crisis and, at the state level, the crisis period of a foreign policy crisis for the state crisis actors; the de-escalation phase of an international crisis and its actor-level counterpart, its end-crisis period; and the impact phase of the international crisis and the corresponding crisis period for the state crisis actors. Moreover, this chapter sets out and tests the hypotheses that are framed for the onset phase and the pre-crisis period; for the escalation phase and the crisis period; for the de-escalation phase and the end-crisis period; and for the impact phase and the post-crisis period. The chapter also discusses changes in the ICB structure, notably in its framework, analysis and content. It focuses on recent additions to this project, specifically, the multiple aspects of Mediation in International Crises—its Sources, Types, Scope, and mixed record of achievement: this has taken the form of the creation of a large number of variables, enriching the ICB dataset and thereby facilitating an important new dimension of the analysis of international and foreign policy crises, and interstate conflicts among states and, where relevant, crisis behavior by non-state actors, notably international institutions, global, regional, and functional, engaged in the quest for resolution of international crises and protracted interstate conflicts. This chapter also provides an Overview of Findings on the world of Conflict.