Abstract
Climate change influences the changes in drought features. This study assesses the changes in severe drought characteristics over the Asian monsoon region responding to 1.5 and 2.0 °C of global average temperature increases above preindustrial levels. Based on the selected 5 global climate models, the drought characteristics are analyzed according to different regional climate zones using the standardized precipitation index. Under global warming, the severity and frequency of severe drought (i.e., SPI <−1.5) are modulated by the changes in seasonal and regional precipitation features regardless of the region. Due to the different regional change trends, global warming is likely to aggravate (or alleviate) severe drought in warm (or dry/cold) climate zones. For seasonal analysis, the ranges of changes in drought severity (and frequency) are −11.5%~6.1% (and −57.1%~23.2%) under 1.5 and 2.0 °C of warming compared to reference condition. The significant decreases in drought frequency are indicated in all climate zones due to the increasing precipitation tendency. In general, drought features under global warming closely tend to be affected by the changes in the amount of precipitation as well as the changes in dry spell length. As the warming enhanced, the spatial variation of drought severity will be increased across climate zones, which can lead to increased water stress over Asia. This study demonstrates that precipitation characteristic changes can explicitly modulate severe regional drought features.
Highlights
Drought is a water imbalance phenomenon caused by a lack of precipitation and periodically recurring climate features
The gridded seasonal precipitation datasets are extracted from the five global climate models (GCMs) and observational andprecipitation reanalysis data (OBS) (i.e., APHRODITE), and, the individual precipitation datasets in all grids within each climate zone are converted to area-averaged values
There is a difference in the regional changes of drought features under the same target global warming, the previous studies have demonstrated that the anthropogenic warming causes the changes in frequency, duration, and intensity of meteorological drought [15,24,54]
Summary
Drought is a water imbalance phenomenon caused by a lack of precipitation and periodically recurring climate features. Even after the drought is over, it results in various effects in related areas, such as agriculture. In this regard, drought it still challenging to determine quantitatively. The general method used to assess drought is based on drought indices, which are commonly applied as a tool for drought analysis by analyzing drought both spatially and temporally [2]. Drought indices can be categorized as meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and socioeconomic, depending on the analytical approach and the input variables, such as precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff [3,4]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
