Global monsoon: Dominant mode of annual variation in the tropics

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This paper discusses the concept of global monsoon. We demonstrate that the primary climatological features of the tropical precipitation and low-level circulation can be represented by a three-parameter metrics: the annual mean and two major modes of annual variation, namely, a solstitial mode and an equinoctial asymmetric mode. Together, the two major modes of annual cycle account for 84% of the annual variance and they represent the global monsoon. The global monsoon precipitation domain can be delineated by a simple monsoon precipitation index (MPI), which is the local annual range of precipitation (MJJAS minus NDJFM in the Northern Hemisphere and NDJFM minus MJJAS in the Southern Hemisphere) normalized by the annual mean precipitation. The monsoon domain can be defined by annual range exceeding 300 mm and the MPI exceeding 50%. The three-parameter precipitation climatology metrics and global monsoon domain proposed in the present paper provides a valuable objective tool for gauging the climate models’ performance on simulation and prediction of the mean climate and annual cycle. The metrics are used to evaluate the precipitation climatology in three global reanalysis products (ERA40, NCEP2, and JRA25) in terms of their pattern correlation coefficients and root mean square errors with reference to observations. The ensemble mean of the three analysis datasets is considerably superior to any of the individual reanalysis data in representing annual mean, annual cycle, and the global monsoon domain. A major common deficiency is found over the Southeast Asia-Philippine Sea and southeast North America-Caribbean Sea where the east–west land–ocean thermal contrast and meridional hemispheric thermal contrast coexist. It is speculated that the weakness is caused by models’ unrealistic representation of Subtropical High and under-represented tropical storm activity, as well as by neglecting atmosphere–ocean interaction in the reanalysis. It is recommended that ensemble mean of reanalysis datasets be used for improving global precipitation climatology and water cycle budget. This paper also explains why the latitudinal asymmetry in the tropical circulation decreases with altitude.