Global energy and geopolitical risk: behavior of oil markets

Abstract

PurposeThe question being assessed is whether changes in the degree of global geopolitical risk (GPR), as defined by the framework developed by Iacoviello (2018), can be used to improve allocative efficiency, thereby increasing investment returns on oil commodities.Design/methodology/approachUsing the linear and nonlinear model, this paper analyzes the impact of GPR on returns of oil prices (BRENT, WTI and Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries), as well as the short- and long-run relationship between GPR and oil prices.FindingsThe results of the impulse response function indicates that oil prices do not respond to shocks in GPR. The results of the Granger causality test show that oil returns are not caused by GPR. The regression analysis and autoregressive distributed lag results show that there is no significant impact of GPR on the returns of oil.Originality/valueThis is unique among the literature in that it identifies and isolates the relationship between GPR and oil market pricing. Insight into the lag in market response and the degree to which GPR can be used to estimate oil prices using curvilinear models are derived from the analysis.