Abstract
This paper discusses the time-varying causalities between global geopolitical risk (GPR) and green bonds (GBs) from the energy market perspective, with a sample period of 2012:M10-2022:M09 and a rolling window subsample causality test. Oil prices and the investment, consumption and cooperation of renewable energy are considered important factors of the energy market. Empirical results show that GPR negatively affects GBs in three different subperiods. Tense geopolitical situations caused fluctuations in oil prices and reduced market participants’ interest in green bonds. On the other hand, the alleviation of GPR has promoted renewable energy cooperation and increased demand for green bonds. In contrast, GBs have both positive and negative effects on GPR. Green bonds guarantee the financial needs of energy transformation, enhance energy security, and lower GPR. However, competition for renewable energy resources will lead to new geopolitical conflicts. The time-varying heterogeneity for the causalities and the bidirectional intensity are clearly identified to provide new insights for existing theoretical research. Thus, understanding the causalities during subperiods is beneficial for market participants to make better decisions to prevent geopolitical conflicts and promote the development of the green bond market.
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