Abstract
The most recent climate change projections show a global increase in temperatures along with precipitation changes throughout the 21st century. However, regional projections do not always match global projections and species with global distributions may exhibit varying regional susceptibility to climate change. Here we show the effect of local climatic conditions on the hatchling output of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) at four nesting sites encompassing the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans. We found a heterogeneous effect of climate. Hatchling output increased with long-term precipitation in areas with dry climatic conditions (Playa Grande, Pacific Ocean and Sandy Point, Caribbean Sea), but the effect varied in areas where precipitation was high (Pacuare, Caribbean Sea) and was not detected at the temperate site (Maputaland, Indian Ocean). High air temperature reduced hatchling output only at the area experiencing seasonal droughts (Playa Grande). Climatic projections showed a drastic increase in air temperature and a mild decrease in precipitation at all sites by 2100. The most unfavorable conditions were projected for Sandy Point where hatching success has already declined over time along with precipitation levels. The heterogeneous effect of climate may lead to local extinctions of leatherback turtles in some areas but survival in others by 2100.
Highlights
While global air temperatures are projected to increase due to anthropogenically-induced climate change, these projections vary regionally[1]
The post-hoc test indicated that hatching success was significantly higher at the temperate site (Maputaland, mean ± SD: 0.80 ± 0 .06), than at the tropical sites (Playa Grande: 0.46 ± 0.12, p < 0 .001; Sandy Point: 0.64 ± 0.09, p < 0 .01 and Pacuare: 0.59 ± 0.06, p < 0.01)
Highest emergence rate was registered for the temperate site (Maputaland: 0.97 ± 0 .01), followed by Sandy Point (0.94 ± 0 .02), Pacuare (0.91 ± 0 .05) and Playa Grande (0.83 ± 0 .06)
Summary
While global air temperatures are projected to increase due to anthropogenically-induced climate change, these projections vary regionally[1]. Because high temperature and low precipitation negatively affect hatchling output, population declines are projected for this area as conditions become unfavorable for egg development and hatchling emergence throughout the 21st century[16]. We wanted to identify populations that could be more susceptible to climate change by using global climate model projections for each study site through the end of the 21st century. This information is pertinent because the IUCN assessment of leatherback turtles recently changed from critically endangered to vulnerable but included regional assessments[17]. If susceptibility to climate change differs among leatherback populations, future IUCN classifications should consider including this type of analysis in their assessments
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