Abstract
ABSTRACTIn this paper, a study aimed to assess the landslide susceptibility at a regional scale for the wide provincial territory of Matera (Basilicata region, southern Italy) and the relative risk along the main road corridors distributed in this area is presented. A heuristic-bivariate statistical predictive model was performed to assess and map the landslide susceptibility in the study area by using a polynomial function of eight predisposing factors, weighted according to their influence on the instability process. The resulting susceptibility map was successively used for assessing the landslide risk along the provincial road network. The importance of these roads, representing the main network connecting the urban centres, derives from the absence of an efficient integrated transportation system through the entire regional territory. The landslide risk was evaluated through a matricial approach, which has allowed to define the risk levels (low, medium and high) along road stretches by overlapping the consequences and hazard maps, by combining their corresponding classes in a matrix and by associating to each combination a risk level. The resulting landslide risk map provides support information for decision-making and for identifying the priorities for the design of appropriate mitigation plans.
Highlights
IntroductionLandslide risk is defined as the expected degree of loss (in terms of loss of life, people injured, damage to properties and disruption of economic activities) due to a landslide in a given area and for a defined period of time (Varnes 1984)
Landslide risk is defined as the expected degree of loss due to a landslide in a given area and for a defined period of time (Varnes 1984)
A study aimed to assess the landslide susceptibility at a regional scale for the wide provincial territory of Matera (Basilicata region, southern Italy) and the relative risk along the main road corridors distributed in this area is presented
Summary
Landslide risk is defined as the expected degree of loss (in terms of loss of life, people injured, damage to properties and disruption of economic activities) due to a landslide in a given area and for a defined period of time (Varnes 1984). The first step in evaluating landslide risk is assessing susceptibility, which is the propensity of an area to generate landslides. The aim of landslide susceptibility mapping is to highlight the spatial distribution of potentially unstable areas. The assessment of landslide susceptibility and risk may be carried out by using several methods according to the scale of the study, the data availability and the aims of the analysis. The methods for assessing and mapping landslide susceptibility are based on the analysis of the relationships among existing landslides and various factors predisposing instability, weighted according to their influence on the instability process. Based on Soeters and Van Westen (1996), Van Westen (2000), Ayalew et al (2005) and Fell et al 2008, these methods, according to GEOMATICS, NATURAL HAZARDS AND RISK the study scale, can be distinguished in (1) inventory-based methods and qualitative heuristic analyses for very small scale (1:750,000–1:250,000), (2) semi-quantitative index-based methods and (3) quantitative models, i.e. bivariate and multivariate statistical methods and training and membership-based models (Artificial Neural Network, Fuzzy Logic, etc.) for small regional scale (1:100,000– 1:50,000) and medium scale analyses (1:25,000–1:10,000) and (4) deterministic and probabilistic approaches for large scale (1:5000–2000)
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