Abstract
Sex estimation is an important part of creating a biological profile for skeletal remains in forensics. The commonly used methods for developing sex estimation equations are discriminant function analysis (DFA) and logistic regression (LogR). LogR equations provide a probability of the predicted sex, while DFA relies on cutoff points to segregate males and females, resulting in a rigid dichotomization of the sexes. This is problematic because sexual dimorphism exists along a continuum and there can be considerable overlap in trait expression between the sexes. In this study, we used humeral measurements to compare the performance of DFA and LogR and found them to be very similar under multiple conditions. The overall cross‐validated (leave‐one‐out) accuracy of DFA (75.76–95.14%) was slightly higher than LogR (75.76–93.82%) for simple and multiple variable equations, and also performed better under varying sample sizes (94.03% vs. 93.78%). Three of five DFA equations outperformed LogR under the B index, while all five LogR equations outperformed the DFA equations under the Q index. Both methods saw an improvement in overall accuracy (DFA: 86.74–95.79%; LogR: 86.74–95.76%) when individuals with a classification probability lower than 0.80 were excluded. Additionally, we propose a method for calculating additional cutoff points (PMarks) based on posterior probability values. In conclusion, we recommend using LogR over DFA due to the increased flexibility, robusticity, and benefits for future users of the statistical models; however, if DFA is preferred, use of the proposed PMarks facilitates future analysis while avoiding unnecessary dichotomization.
Highlights
Sex estimation is an important part of creating a biological profile for skeletal remains in forensics
While there have been many sex estimation equations provided from a variety of populations to deal with the inter-population differences in sexual dimorphism [2,9,10,11], there are still issues when it comes to the biological overlap that occurs between the sexes within a population [12]
Sexual dimorphism in most skeletal elements occurs on a gradient with an area of considerable overlap between males and females, which is the main source of prediction inaccuracy in any sex estimation study
Summary
Sex estimation is an important part of creating a biological profile for skeletal remains in forensics. LogR equations provide a probability of the predicted sex, while DFA relies on cutoff points to segregate males and females, resulting in a rigid dichotomization of the sexes. This is problematic because sexual dimorphism exists along a continuum and there can be considerable overlap in trait expression between the sexes. One way to offset intrasexual variability is by providing estimates associated with a probability, which can readily be obtained from DFA and LogR; the ability to obtain probabilities for predictions does not always carry over from the original publication to future users of the model.
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