Assessing the reliability and accuracy of sex estimation models utilizing sternal morphometry derived from computed tomography in the Ghanaian population

Abstract

Sex estimation models are specific to populations and cannot be generalized due to genetic and environmental variabilities. This retrospective cross-sectional study, conducted between January and September 2023 at the Tamale Teaching Hospital, included 119 (50.9 %) females and 115 (49.1 %) males aged 23–82 years. Measurements, including manubrium length (M), manubrium width (MW), sternal body length (B), combined manubrium and sternal body lengths (CL), corpus sterni width at first sternebrae (CSWS1), and corpus sterni width at third sternebrae (CSWS3), were obtained from Computerized Tomographic (CT) images of the sternum using DICOM Viewer, accurate to 0.1 cm. Subsequently, sternal area (SA) and sternal index (SI) were calculated. Univariable and stepwise multivariable discriminant function analysis (DFA) and logistic regression (LR) models were developed using a training sample (70 %), and cross-validation was performed on a holdout sample (30 %). Results showed that the linear measurements, excluding M, and sternal area were higher in males than females (P<0.001), while the sternal index was <50 % in males but >50 % in females (P<0.001). Univariable sex estimation accuracies, in cross-validation, ranged from 43.7 % to 92.9 % in DFA and 50.0–92.9 % in LR. For multivariable models, the accuracy ranges were 92.9–94.3 % in DFA and 91.6–93.0 % in LR. The sternal body length was the most accurate at 90.1 % in DFA and 90.2 % in LR, with lower sex bias (male-female) in LR than in DFA (-0.1 vs. 8.7). The sternum proves valuable for sex estimation, with sternal body length as the most accurate linear measurement. However, multivariable models, particularly LR, demonstrate higher accuracy compared to DFA.