Genesis of the Russia-Japan Conundrum in Northeast Asian Security: The Anatomy of Mutual Distrust and the China Factor

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This paper examines the potential and limits of Russo-Japanese bilateral relations across the Gorbachev, Yeltsin and Putin periods, exploring the roots of the mutual distrust between the two countries, Gorbachev’s “new thinking” with respect to Japan, how Yeltsin’s policy differed from Gorbachev’s, what Putin’s policy priorities were with Abe, and the limits of Russo-Japanese relations. I also analyze important external elements in bilateral relations such as the China factor, predict how Russian relations with Japan will affect Russia’s future role in Northeast Asia, and discuss policy implications for Republic of Korea as well. The main argument of this paper is that Japan and Russia will continue to remain as immiscible in the end even before economic relations fully heated. Kuril Island dispute along with inherent mistrust between the two sides will continue to obstruct bilateral relations for the indefinite period unless there is a shocking event such as Russia’s decision to yield the four islands in contention to Japan.