Bilateral Accomplishments and Multilateral Tasks in Northeast Asian Security

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Two trends in the contemporary Northeast Asian theatre stand out. The first is the growing pace and complexity of bilateral relations. All the powers of the region have been particularly energetic in reanimating existing ties, or engaging in high profile personal diplomacy in order to improve relations. Here, perhaps, the accord reached in Washington during President Jiang Zemin's 1997 visit is particularly noteworthy. The second is the series of developments which have served to remind the region that the term deserves the widest definition, and that the security and well-being of the various countries have become highly interdependent. These include the transport of nuclear waste, the regional financial crisis, and the emergence of famine conditions in North Korea. The first has stimulated some discussion of the reemergence of a concert or balance of powers in Asia;(1) the second has strengthened the argument for the need for multilateral mechanisms to address as wide as possible a definition of security in the region, though at a time when the strains imposed upon the ASEAN states are threatening to deflect the wider regional community from difficult security tasks. Bilateral Initiatives On a strict interpretation, the agreement between Russia and the former Central Asian states of the Soviet Union, on the one hand, and China, on the other, in April 1996, regarding confidence-building measures along their common borders, is both a multilateral endeavour, and of more relevance to Central Asia than to the continent's northeast. However, its core is a far-reaching accord between Russia and China which has laid the foundation for subsequent improvements in relations between the two Northeast Asian powers. The agreement (further elaborated in an accord of April 1997) provides for comprehensive transparency and advanced notification of all military dispositions and movements in a 100-kilometre border zone between China, on the one hand, and Russia and the Central Asian parties, on the other. Though it took some six years to negotiate, during which the parties principal increased from two to five, this agreement is something of a model for confidence-building, especially in cases where differences of geography and force configurations pose difficulties for strict reciprocity. Its example may well have encouraged China and India to negotiate a new accord on the actual line of control between the two countries, which was announced in November 1996. Upon this basis, the third China-Russia summit in two years produced an agreement in Beijing definitively delimiting the 4,200 kilometre eastern border between the two countries, running from Mongolia to the Tumen River. It should be recalled that differences in this area resulted in a serious border incident in 1969, and uncertainties over conflicting territorial claims have long marred relations. The strategic partnership between China and Russia appears thus to have borne fruit, though (apart from an increased flow of arms purchases) the enhanced trade relations which were envisaged at the same time have been slow to develop. However, political instabilities and severe economic difficulties in Russia's Primorskiy Krai (Maritime Province) have underlined the limitations of centre-to-centre relations which are potentially out of step with the dynamic in the localities. Russian membership of APEC, agreed at the 1997 Vancouver summit, may help address these limitations. Northeast Asian relations have been obstructed by the lack of complete and symmetrical diplomatic relations, at least since the former Soviet Union and China recognized the Republic of Korea in 1990 and 1992 respectively. In 1997 there was some progress on this front. Since 1994, as part of the Agreed Framework negotiated between the United States and North Korea, there have been a series of contacts between the two sides (the most significant in Washington in November 1997) during which the exchange of liaison missions and the relaxation of trade and investment restrictions were discussed. …