Abstract
Six members of the Hadley Centre’s Perturbed Physics Ensemble for the Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions (QUMP) project are downscaled using the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) RCM (Regional Climate Model). Climate scenarios at long-term temperature goals (LTTGs) of 1.5, 2.0, and 2.5 °C above pre-industrial warming levels are generated for the Caribbean and six sub-regions for annual and seasonal timescales. Under a high emissions scenario, the LTTGs are attained in the mid-2020s, end of the 2030s, and the early 2050s, respectively. At 1.5 °C, the region is slightly cooler than the globe, land areas warmer than ocean, and for the later months, the north is warmer than the south. The far western and southern Caribbean including the eastern Caribbean island chain dry at 1.5 °C (up to 50%). At 2.0 °C, the warming and drying intensify and there is a reversal of a wet tendency in parts of the north Caribbean. Drying in the rainfall season accounts for much of the annual change. There is limited further intensification of the region-wide drying at 2.5 °C. Changes in wind strength in the Caribbean low-level jet region may contribute to the patterns seen. There are implications for urgent and targeted adaptation planning in the Caribbean.
Highlights
The Caribbean has consistently advocated for global recognition of the threat of climate change for small island developing states (SIDS) [1]
Caribbean advocacy in part led to 1.5 ◦ C being captured as an aspirational long-term temperature goal (LTTG) in the 2015 Paris Agreement—the prevailing global climate change agreement within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) [7]
Plots are for the baseline period 1960–1990 and are restricted to the Caribbean basin, which is the focus of the study
Summary
The Caribbean has consistently advocated for global recognition of the threat of climate change for small island developing states (SIDS) [1]. The suggestion is that sectors essential for Caribbean existence including water, agriculture, and energy are extremely vulnerable to climatic variations. Their future viability and in turn Caribbean life are threatened should global warming exceed 1.5 ◦ C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century [1,2,3,4,5,6]. Caribbean advocacy in part led to 1.5 ◦ C being captured as an aspirational long-term temperature goal (LTTG) in the 2015 Paris Agreement—the prevailing global climate change agreement within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) [7]. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its current reporting cycle subsequently produced a special report examining, among other things, the feasibility, impacts of and global effort required to achieve the 1.5 ◦ C target [8]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
