Assessment of Climate Hazards Using PRECIS Regional Climate Model (RCM): A Case Study in Cameron Highlands, Pahang, Malaysia

Abstract

This study aimed to assess the differences in modelling disaster risks results when using historical precipitation and when using simulated precipitation associated with future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate scenarios. Subsequently, the relationship between climate change and climate hazards was analyzed in this study. The secondary data analyzed included historical precipitation (1983-2017), flood and landslide events records, and Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) regional climate model (RCM):A1B, A2 and B2 scenarios. By comparing the historical precipitation data with the RCM scenarios, the results showed that the precipitation was correlated with A1B scenario (r= 0.695). The relationship between climate change and hazards was identified to be a positive correlation. The historical daily precipitation (1983-2017) showed a positive correlation with flood and landslide events (r= 0.530, r = 0.797, respectively). As for prediction of climate hazards, the RCM A1B, A2 and B2 scenarios showed correlations with flood event: r= 0.648, 0.384 and 0.417, respectively. Similar results were obtained for landslide and the RCM A1B, A2 and B2 scenario: r = 0.498, 0.751 and 0.654, respectively. Precipitation simulation by PRECIS RCM indicated increased levels of precipitation in the Cameron Highlands for the 2018 - 2069. Commensurate with this, great possibility of increasingly serious consequential hazards such as flood and landslide events are expected.