Simulation of the Taiwan climate using the Hadley Centre PRECIS regional climate modelling system: The 1979-1981 results

Kuo-Ying Wang,D.E Shallcross

doi:10.3319/tao.2005.16.5.1017(rcs)

Abstract

In this paper we describe the simulation of Taiwan's climate for the period 1979-1981 using the Hadley Centre PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) regional climate modeling system. The PRECIS simulations of surface precipitation and temperature have been compared in detail with the Central Weather Bureau measurements, and also with outputs from the IPCC global climate models such as the HadCM3, the CCSR, and the NCEP 50-year reanalysis data. Our results show that the very complicated spatial patterns of surface rainfall as revealed from the measurements can only be reproduced using the PRECIS model. The inter-annual variability in rainfall has shown to be well reproduced by the PRECIS model. The PRECIS model also demonstrates a good capability in simulating the spatial distribution of surface temperature over the whole of Taiwan, especially over Taiwan's Central Mountain Range. Since the PRECIS simulations were produced in combination with the ERA-15 global model results, our results show that a good way forward in conducting regional climate modeling at the national level requires the use of both global climate models and high resolution regional climate models.

Highlights

Simulating climate change at the regional and national levels is essential for policy mak-TAO, Vol 16, No 5, December 2005 ing (Burroughs 2003)
We have developed a strong collaboration with the UK Hadley Centre at the Met Office to run the PRECIS model over the Taiwan area; and further collaboration on the use of the renowned Hadley Centre global climate model HadCM3 in Taiwan will further facilitate the verification of global climate modeling capability in Taiwan
In this paper we have evaluated climate simulations from three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global climate models, and the Hadley Centre PRECIS regional climate model using high-resolution measurements of surface precipitations and temperature in Taiwan for the period between December 1978 and November 1981

Summary

Introduction

Simulating climate change at the regional and national levels is essential for policy mak-TAO, Vol 16, No 5, December 2005 ing (Burroughs 2003). In recent years Taipei’s Feitsui Reservoir has been severely depleted owing to a lack of rain This depletion led to alternate day water restrictions in the Taipei metropolitan area, and ironically such restrictions came in the two years post the record breaking rainfall brought by the Typhoon Nari in 2001 (Sui et al 2003; Wang et al 2004). Another area of apparent change has been in seasonal ground-level temperatures which can impact significantly electric power usage, the spreading of disease, and other health-related issues (Martens 1998; Kaiser 2002).

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Results

Conclusion