Fuzzy Set Theory for Planning the Operation of a Motor Transport Enterprise

Abstract

The emphasis is placed on the uncertainty of demand in the planning of the volume of transportation of goods in intercity traffic for motor transport enterprises, requiring managers to make scientifically sound management decisions aimed at fulfilling the terms of the contracts. The aim of the study is to develop a scientific and methodological approach to planning the volume of cargo transportation in intercity traffic by rolling stock of a motor transport enterprise. In the proposed approach, a synthesis of scientific methods of the fuzzy set theory and the classical theory of probability is implemented, which allows planning the volume of transportation of goods in intercity traffic for a motor transport enterprise, taking into account the fuzzy volume of transportation under contracts, rolling stock sizes and quarters. For practical implementation, a method has been developed that is implemented using the created mathematical model for planning the volume of cargo transportation in intercity traffic. Using the developed method, the volumes of transportation of food products from Omsk in the Western and Eastern directions were planned. Using the theory of fuzzy sets for planning, it will be possible to estimate the volume of cargo transportation according to a certain technological scheme in accordance with the performance of rolling stock by standard sizes, which should be taken into account when managing the resources and capacity of motor transport enterprises for the current period.