Fuzzy neural network based prediction model applied in primary component analysis

Abstract

To solve the low accuracy and bad robustness problems in traditional water quality prediction method, this paper put forward a primary component analysis (PCA)---fuzzy neural network (FNN)---DEBP based prediction model of dissolved oxygen (DO) in aquaculture water quality. This model used PCA to extract the PC of aquaculture ecological indexes, then reduced the input vector dimension of the model, and utilized differential evolutionary algorithm to optimize the weight parameter of FNN, in order to automatically obtain the optimum parameters and build nonlinear prediction model of DO in aquaculture water quality. The model was applied in a predictive analysis on the water quality data online monitored from December 1st 2015 to December 8th 2015 in a Penaeus orientalis culture pond. The testing results show that this model has obtained a good predictive effect. Compared to BP-FNN model, in PCA---FNN---DEBP model, the absolute error of 95.8% test samples is less than 20%, and the maximum error is 0.22 mg/L, both of which are superior than BP-FNN prediction method. Due to rapid computation speed and high prediction accuracy, PCA---FNN---DEBP algorithm can provide strategic basis for the regulation and management of water quality in P. orientalis culture.