Fuzzy linguistic forecasting of the results of the implementation of regional socio-economic projects

Abstract

The article is devoted to the problem of improving the intellectual digital support for managing the implementation of regional socio-economic projects, which are an effective mechanism for the development of regions. Given the high level of uncertainty in the description of the subject area, it is proposed to use expert technologies to assess the degree of achievement of the intermediate and target indicators of the project. L. Zadeh's linguistic modeling apparatus was used as the basis for intellectual tools for representing and processing expert judgments. A linguistic indicative-temporal-territorial model of the project has been built in the form of a set of linguistic variables and a system of fuzzy production rules linking these variables. At the same time, temporal and territorial linguistic variables reflect the time and place of measurement of project indicators, the incomplete correspondence of which determines the degree of reliability of the measured values of indicators. The use of the constructed system of indicative-temporal-territorial fuzzy production rules makes it possible to link the intermediate values of the indicators with the target values of the project indicators and thereby predict the possible outcomes of its implementation. For this, a fuzzy logic inference procedure based on the use of the Mamdani algorithm has been developed. Preliminary results of using a research prototype of an intelligent expert system for analyzing the intermediate results of the project stages and predicting its results may indicate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.