Future use of heat pumps in Swedish district heating systems: Short- and long-term impact of policy instruments and planned investments

Abstract

Heat pumps constitute one of the major technologies used in district heating systems in Sweden. Totally about 6 TWh of heat are supplied annually by heat pumps, equivalent to 12% of the heat supplied in district heating systems. New policy instruments that have recently been introduced will change the conditions for technologies in the district heating systems. It is likely that the incentives for waste incineration and combined heat and power will be improved. This study estimates how different policy instruments, and new investments in waste incineration and combined heat and power, affect heat pumps in Swedish district heating systems. The results indicate that heat pumps are affected in both a short-term and a long-term perspective, and that heat pumps will play a less important role in district heating systems in the future. Depending on the policy instruments applied in the district heating sector, the long-term use is between 18% and 71% lower than current use. In a long-term perspective, it is in the systems which currently use heat pumps during a large part of the year that new investments in waste incineration and combined heat and power can be expected, resulting in a convergence between different district heating systems regarding how much heat is supplied by combined heat and power and waste incineration, and regarding the annual operating hours for heat pumps.