Energy transition, carbon trade and sustainable electricity generation in Pakistan

Abstract

This study measures the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions into six-factor effects, including carbon trade intensity, trade of fossil fuels, fossil fuel intensity, renewable sources productivity, electricity financial, and financial development for Pakistan from 1992 to 2021, using decomposition, decoupling, mitigation rate of CO2 emissions and prediction analysis. The empirical findings show that the main factor leading to CO2 emissions is fuel intensity, while renewable productivity is the factor that mitigates CO2 emission during the period, with a contribution of 23.8%. During the study period, expansive negative decoupling, weak decoupling, expansive coupling, and strong decoupling were determined, however, expansive negative decoupling was at its maximum period. The outcomes confirm that CO2 emissions identify an expansive negative decoupling with economic growth in the current index, while expansive coupling and strong decoupling provided negative emissions only during 2010–2012 and 2019–2020 due to energy substitution and epidemic situations. The mitigation rate of carbon emissions was observed in 1997–2001, 2002–2006, and 2007–2011 due to an increase in the share of renewable sources. The prediction model presents that economic and fossil fuel trade are the major concerns; the CO2 emissions would increase by 68.63 Mt. in 2041, which could be reduced by renewable resources and technologies.