Abstract
Abstract According to reports of Tavanir (power generation organization in Iran) in 2015, the share of wind power generation in Iran compared with other energy sources is less than 0.3%. In this paper, we suggest that despite the local potentials that exist in Iran, these capacities in wind power industry of Iran aren’t correctly identified and used, also previous wind power functions have been weakened, all these because of the dynamic inhibitor loops as a result of policies conducted. Inhibitor loops are the results of short-term corrective measures which have brought dynamic risks and costs. These risks and costs make wind power energy sources unprofitable. In this study, using system dynamics approach, we analyze these costs paid for balance of risks and survey the optimal wind power production compared with other energy sources in energy portfolio. In the model used in this study, a dynamic relationship between risk and value is presented to create value in order to use energy sources efficiently and manage generated risks. Finally, the future process of value of wind power in energy portfolio is evaluated by computer simulation.
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