Future Changes in Water Availability Due to Climate Change Projections for Huong Basin, Vietnam

Abstract

The main aim of this study is to assess the water availability in the Huong River Basin, Central Vietnam under the impacts of climate and population changes. Regarding the climate change impacts assessment, two options were adopted to produce fine scale climate projections over the river basin. First, coarse scale projections of rainfall and temperature by the HadCM3 General Circulation Model (GCM) were downscaled statistically using the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM). The second approach used bias-corrected dynamically downscaled output of HadGEM3-RA Regional Climate Model (RCM). The HEC-HMS hydrologic model was used for simulating the rainfall-runoff response in association with climate forcing. Finally, water availability was evaluated using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model by taking into account plausible population changes within the river basin. The results showed that the future temperature will rise by 0.2 to 3.5 °C and annual rainfall will increase by 1 to 8%. Water shortages in 2080s were non-existent if population projections were ignored, which is to be expected given the projected increase in rainfall. When projected population increases were considered, however, there were unmet urban water demands in districts that were previously self-sufficient. However, the shortages remain very small relative to the gross domestic demand that they give no cause for alarm. The big message here is that the hydrology of the Huong River Basin in Vietnam will cope with the most severe projected climate to meet its agricultural and domestic water supply obligations well into the future. • Temperature and rainfall are both projected to rise in the Huong River Basin. • Simulated water shortage was small for the projected climate. • Population changes accentuated water scarcity within the Basin.