Future changes in agrometeorological extremes in the southern Mediterranean region: When and where will they affect croplands and wheatlands?

Abstract

Climate change and extremes are increasingly threatening food security, especially in the Global South. Here, we examine how croplands and wheatlands of the southern Mediterranean region could be affected by projected changes in agrometeorological extremes over the 21st century. We use 17 bias-corrected climate models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to identify potential trends and assess the time of emergence of significant changes in agrometeorological extremes under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP3–7.0). We note that simulated historical trends in agrometeorological extremes closely match observed trends, here derived from ERA5land, over croplands. Our analysis of CMIP6 projected scenarios reveals a consistent rise in heat intensity, drought intensity, and the frequency of compound dry and hot (D5/H95) days. While a reduction in frost intensity, combined with fewer wet and cold (W95/C5) and dry and cold (D5/C5) events offer some mitigation potential, concerns about water scarcity due to heightened heat and drought stresses may overshadow these benefits. These changes in agrometeorological extremes are projected to emerge in the near- and mid-term future (by 2030 and 2050). We also note that the projected decreases in cold extremes affect smaller agricultural regions than the increases in extreme heat. We find higher likelihoods of negative agrometeorological impacts over croplands and wheatlands throughout the 21st century, which could significantly challenge crop yields and agricultural sustainability. Without proactive adaptation and mitigation strategies, food security could come increasingly under threat in a changing climate in the southern Mediterranean region.