Spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of extreme fire severity in Spain for the period 1985–2018

Abstract

Extreme fire severity patterns driven by climate change have deep consequences on vegetation, subsequent fire regimes and have consequences on the effectiveness of extinction. In this work, we aimed to determine if extreme fire severity defined as the 90th percentile of RdNBR has changed in Spain in the last 3 decades, if extreme fire severity patterns have differed among the different vegetation types and what drivers have influenced extreme fire severity in both summer and non-summer fires. We have used perimeters of large wildfires (≥100 ha, n = 1719) from 1985 to 2018 in four pyroregions and the main dominant vegetation types. We have analyzed time series for each pyroregion and vegetation type to determine if there were significant trends and breakpoints in extreme fire severity. We have also analyzed the effects of drought, weather, topography and vegetation on extreme fire severity in seasonal wildfires.Extreme fire severity increased in summer fires from 1985 to 2018, especially in the East and North pyroregions, while the Southwest pyroregion reached highest values in summer. There has been an increase of severity in shrubland, mosaic vegetation and conifer forests in summer. Broadleaved forests had the lowest values of fire severity and did not show any trend in the period considered. The most important drivers of extreme fire severity are, in order of importance, pyroregion, elevation, slope, vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and vegetation type for summer fires, and VPD, vegetation types, pyroregion, windspeed and drought for non-summer fires. Global change is increasing climate-related events. Our results indicate that extreme fire severity in summer has been on the rise in recent decades in Spain, suggesting that, in a climate warming context, without strategic management of these increasingly flammable landscapes, further increases may be likely.