Projected changes in Compound Extremes under low to high emission SSPs Scenarios

Abstract

The compound extremes of rainfall and temperature increase globally under the warming climate. Over the past few decades, the frequency and intensity of compound extremes, such as extreme rainfall events and heat waves, have increased across various climatic zones in India. This study aims to analyze the changes in these compound extremes at specific thresholds (percentiles) from CMIP6-based Multi-Model Ensemble (MME). We further examine the future changes in extremes in different time frames, i.e., near (2015-2040), mid (2041-2070), and far (2071-2099) future at annual and seasonal time scales. The projected extremity under the new Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) showed an increasing trend in consecutive dry (wet) stages over an increase in northern (central) parts of India. Intense and frequent heat waves are mainly concentrated over the north-central region under the low to high-emission scenarios. Also, India's northern, central, and western regions may experience more extremity under high-emission (SSP5-8.5) scenarios that highlight the importance of developing long-term adaptation and mitigation strategies aimed at reducing climate vulnerability.