Chapter 5 - How are atmospheric extremes likely to change into the future?

Abstract

This chapter describes the likely future changes in atmospheric extremes, including extreme heat, precipitation, drought, storms, atmospheric rivers, wind gusts and compound extremes. These projections involve large uncertainties, making it difficult to generalise about future changes in extreme weather and climate events. Nevertheless, it is clear that no atmospheric extreme is insensitive to future increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Projected changes in most atmospheric extremes are consistent with those detected in post-industrial records, with the rate of change sometimes accelerating, at least through to the end of the 21st century. Record-shattering extremes, nearly impossible in the absence of anthropogenic forcing, can be expected to occur in the coming decades. The chapter also considers whether these changes are, or when they are likely to become, distinguishable from natural climate variability as a result of further anthropogenic forcing.