Abstract

The occurrence of an extreme atmospheric or oceanic event depends on there being a favourable initial state, and on the influence of large-scale drivers, positive local feedbacks and stochastic processes. Extremes occur and change over time, due to a combination of internal variability and external forcing. Changes in extremes that are driven by global-scale thermodynamic processes are relatively well understood compared to changes that are driven by dynamic processes, or by regional and local forcing, including regional and local thermodynamic processes. Compound extremes emphasise even further the need to consider multiple drivers when discussing the initiation and evolution of weather, climate and ocean extremes. The interdependence of these drivers is often of critical importance.

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