Future Carbon Sequestration and Timber Yields from Chinese Commercial Forests under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Abstract

Socio-economic status, technologies, and policies are key factors affecting forest management planning and forest ecosystem functions. This study applied shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to a forest-management model framework. The potential timber yields and carbon sinks of spatially allocate alternatives were examined by quantifying their consequent changes at the regional tree species level in Chinese commercial forests (CFs) under the harvest and afforestation restrictions. The results indicate that the annual carbon sequestration rate of China’s CFs over the next 50 years is estimated to be 152.0–162.5 Tg/a, which can offset approximately 5% of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions identified in 2019. Newly planted and regenerated forests can contribute more than 80% of this offset. The annual timber supply capacity is estimated to be 119.2–142.4 million m3/a with current policy interventions, which is not enough to meet the demand for China’s timber market. Although most existing forests are managed as the primary source for forest goods and carbon service, the total commercial forest area changes are not as large as expected, resulting in only 2.0–10.6% differences. Our results also demonstrate that socioeconomic factors (e.g., social preference, carbon price, and forest logging and silvicultural practices) have a strong impact on carbon sinks but a minor impact on timber yields timber, except for improving harvesting and processing technologies. Establishing local long-term effective forest management systems and making afforestation and regeneration as a priority at the national level are suggested to comprehensively enhance the carbon sequestration and timber-supplying abilities of regional CFs.