Estimating regional timber supply and forest carbon sequestration under shared socioeconomic pathways: A case study of Maine, USA

Abstract

This study provides a regional model framework to evaluate timber supply and carbon impacts of environmental and socioeconomic change in Maine, USA. We construct alternative future narratives that vary economic growth, forest management, and environmental policies and then conduct econometric analysis to project forest area and timber supply over the next 80 years under five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Forest area changes from 2020–2100 ranged from a 11% decline in SSP3 (regional rivalry) to 0.2% for SSP1 (sustainability). Maine’s forest carbon stocks and timber supply can still mutually increase before 2070 for all pathways, largely due to improvements in forest management, growth, and yield. Overall timber supply is projected to increase by 0.21–0.51% per annum, with supply expanding faster for pathways with higher timber price growth. Total forest carbon stocks (ecosystem and products) are projected to increase 0.40–0.64%/yr for similar reasons. Sensitivity analysis indicated the key drivers most likely to affect Maine’s forest sector are timber prices, population change, personal income, land value, and conservation land area. This study offers valuable insight on possible methods about region-specific socio-economic assessments.