From Fossil Fuels to Renewables: Clustering European Primary Energy Production from 1990 to 2022

Abstract

This study examines the structural shifts in primary energy production across European countries from 1990 to 2022, focusing on changes in energy sources and their implications for energy security and sustainability. Set against a backdrop of evolving geopolitical landscapes, economic pressures, and climate policies, including significant recent impacts such as the conflict in Ukraine, this research highlights the critical importance of a stable and diversified energy supply. The analysis utilizes the k-means clustering method, examining countries for which data are available in the Eurostat database and considering primary energy sources as defined by the Standard International Energy Product Classification (SIEC), including solid fossil fuels, natural gas, crude oil, nuclear energy, renewable energy sources, peat, and non-renewable waste. By categorizing European nations into clusters based on their energy production profiles, the study reveals substantial transitions from fossil fuel-based systems to those increasingly dominated by renewable energy sources. While some countries have made significant progress in integrating renewables, others remain heavily dependent on traditional energy sources such as coal and natural gas. The findings underscore the growing role of natural gas as a bridge fuel and the relatively stable contribution of nuclear energy in certain regions. A key outcome is the observed disparity between energy production and consumption across Europe, with many large economies facing a persistent deficit in domestic energy production, resulting in a high reliance on energy imports, particularly of natural gas and oil. This dependency poses significant challenges to energy security, especially given recent geopolitical disruptions and market fluctuations. The paper also discusses the environmental implications of these energy trends, emphasizing the vital role of renewable energy in achieving the European Union’s decarbonization goals.