Forexite instrument for forecasting strategic development of tourism

Abstract

The purpose of the article is the allocation of foresight tools for forecasting the strategic development of tourism, taking into account national characteristics, drawing on world experience. Two approaches are identified as the basis of the foresight methodology: normative and exploratory. It is proposed to use the ideas of I. Ivey concerning the foresight of tourism in order to forecast the development of tourism. The necessity to form a system of strategic vision of tourism development is proved, based on 3 levels (horizons). A number of tools and processes that can be used to form the "Horizon 3" are highlighted. It is proposed to expel four megatrends of tourism development in the future: demand growth; growth of sustainable tourism; advanced technology; mobility of travel. The main drivers of qualitative changes in tourism and hospitality are the development of information and communication technologies and e-business. Currently, travel companies use Internet technology for two main purposes: marketing and direct sales of their services. Actively used such Internet technologies as sites, on-line reservation, on-line purchase of tourist products, and also tracking of preferences of clients. The basis for competitiveness and profitability in the field of tourism and hospitality is a new profile tourist destination: digital; "green"; social indicators. Indicators of tourism development in the Odessa region are analyzed and problematic aspects are highlighted. The recommendations for stimulating tourist activity for consolidation of the work of the authorities, the public and business for the common goal are the following: the observance of international standards of all members of the tourism product supply chain for the sustainable development of tourist destinations in Ukraine. Sustainable tourism requires awareness of all stakeholders, a strong political leader for consolidating society; effective programs and projects; monitoring changes. The trend is the development of responsible tourism, based on the principles of social and economic justice, respect for local ecology, traditions and culture.