Abstract
Forest fires are one of the most dangerous events, causing serious land and environmental degradation. Indeed, besides the loss of a huge quantity of plant species, the effects of fires can go far beyond: desertification, increased risk of landslides, soil erosion, death of animals, etc. For these reasons, mathematical models able to predict fire spreading are needed in order to organize and optimize the extinguishing interventions during fire emergencies. This work presents a new system to simulate and predict the movement of the fire front based on free and open source Geographic Information System (GIS) technologies and the Rothermel surface fire spread model, with the adjustments made by Albini. We describe the mathematical models used, provide an overview of the GIS design and implementation, and present the results of some simulations at Etna volcano (Sicily, Italy), characterized by high geomorphological heterogeneity, and where the native flora and fauna may be preserved and perpetuated. The results consist of raster maps representing the progress times of the fire front starting from an ignition point and as a function of the topography and wind directions. The reliability of results is strictly affected by the correct positioning of the fire ignition point, by the accuracy of the topography that describes the morphology of the territory, and by the setting of the meteorological conditions at the moment of the ignition and propagation of the fire.
Highlights
In recent years, forest fires has become one of the major problems in land management.The phenomenon is favored by the global warming that causes a growth of the annual number of fires and subsequent burned areas [1]
The Geographic Information System (GIS) technology represents a valid tool for applying the Albini model, since it allows to quickly produce geo-referenced raster cartography relating to the slope of the ground starting from a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and to simulate the propagation of a fire front in a reproducible way
The application was developed by implementing the Rothermel mathematical model modified by Albini in the GIS environment in order to consider the variation of the slope and the wind direction in the propagation phases of the fire front
Summary
Forest fires has become one of the major problems in land management. 2, the small loops in the wildfire opment of fire management plans, needs a more extended conceptual model, fr triangle illustrate the strong feedback between fire and the control parameters, and the arrows emphasize the feedbacks that act between scales Together these factors govern the evolution of a fire regime, leading to characteristic patterns and approximate recurrence intervals for fires of different sizes, reflecting aspects of ecosystem structure at a relatively coarse resolution [33]. For this reason, most of the literature models are based on the triangle to larger scales of space and time [32]. Thewildfire wildfire triangle model extended to multiple and temporal scales (from [32])
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