Forecasting the Tyva Republic population based on correlation and regression analysis

Abstract

Subject. The article deals with the forecast of the population of the Tyva Republic in the short term, based on correlation and regression analysis. Objectives. The aim is to forecast the population of the Tyva Republic, using the correlation and regression analysis. Methods. The study draws on the correlation and regression analysis, as one of the methods of multivariate statistical analysis, in which the form and intensity of relationship are presented in the form of mathematical equations and formulas. We also apply methods of comparison, dynamics, table and image format of visualization of the study results. Results. The correlation and regression analysis provides forecast data relating to the population of the Tyva Republic for 2020, which is very close to the actual population for this year. The analysis of indicators for development of the population revealed an annual increase, despite the declining fertility rates and unstable trend in mortality. The paper estimates the parameters of the regression equation, which describes the relationship between fertility, mortality, migration and population size. The findings may help create programs for demographic policy, socio-economic development of the territory, improvement of living standards in the region. Conclusions. The use of correlation and regression analysis will serve as a fairly reliable method to solve the problem. The study unveils significant factors that affect the growth or decline of population in the region.